As I mentioned yesterday, China is considering the War to be a firm U.S. policy shift in dealing with nations who do not conform to U.S. ideological beliefs. However flawed this conclusion, it brings up a thought that I had a week ago on the impact the War does and will have on U.S. foreign policy. Like Germany, Russia, and France, China considers the action in Iraq as a unilateral action (nevermind Britain and Australia as well as the support of other European nations such as Belgium, Spain, and Italy) of the United States enforcing its own version of international law i.e. without the consent of the U.N. As such, China is now reformulating its domestic agenda towards nationalism, internal security, modernization of its Military Weaponry, and controlled economic growth (read: so much for capitalism, there are some industries such as heavy manufacturing that really are better off under state control). What brought on this knee-jerk, dead panic reaction as far as I can tell is two things: 1) The Chinese failed to build up even a 30-day supply of crude oil before the war spiked oil prices* and 2) Iraq is in central Asia and very much in the neighborhood of China. The Chinese have now seen two major interventions by the U.S. in their own backyard in the past 18 months since September 11, 2001. First in Afghanistan (literally in their back yard) and now in Iraq (which is very much in the neighborhood). Now that these two factors have sent Chinese policy makers into a tizzy, two very big problems arise in Asia: North Korea and, to a lessor degree, Pakistan.

The United States framed the War in Iraq as being over Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and failure to comply with U.N. Inspections, firstly, U.N. Sanctions, secondly, and the assumption that WMD would be dispersed to terrorist, thirdly. This attitude of the United States has very much alarmed the Chinese as the North Korean regime is both part of the Axis of Evil and staunchly backed by the Chinese. Needless to say, the posturing of the United States towards Iraq and the UN indicates to the Chinese that once Saddams's Regime has fallen, Pyongyang is next. Unfortunately, the Chinese analysis has one fatal flaw.

The UN failed after the Gulf War to remove Saddam Hussein, choosing instead to end the war at 12 miles (or whatever it was) over the Iraqi/Kuwait border. China has nothing to fear except the actions of a rogue statement and perhaps Pakistan internal unrest, both of which could provoke a military reprisal only if 1) UN failure to resolve the conflict diplomatically or 2) Neo-conservative policy reigns in the Whitehouse as opposed to the Pacifist Policies that the U.S. exercised under Clinton. The Neo-con adovocates of the Whitehouse may staunchly back military action against North Korea while I would like to believe that the Neo-con faction preveiled because Clinton and the U.N. failed (re: Iraq) and not because of hawkish neo-con tendencies of George W. (A foolish hope, perhaps)

*This is a news flash to me since gas prices have been consistently dropping since the war started here due to falling crude prices...something's out of whack but I'm editorializing, not fact finding here.